NFL week-9
GB @ NE
Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET · Gillette Stadium · Outdoors; forecast not yet loaded
Kicked off. The close and the graded move are on the Results page.
Projected line move
No projected move: model within a point of the opener
Projected line move: none. The simulations sit within a point of the opener (NE -3.0 vs -3.0).
Alert history
| Number | Appeared | Ended | Edge at issue |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB +3.5 -118DraftKings | Nov 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ET | active | +$6.66 |
| NE -2.5 -118BetMGM | Nov 2, 2026, 6:12 PM ET | Nov 3, 2026, 10:14 AM ET | +$5.13 |
Reference
Simulation detail
What the 10,000 simulations produced. Context for the market numbers above, not a recommendation.
Simulation side
HIGH CONFIDENCENE -3.0
Covers 50.5% · EV -3.61
Over 46.5
Hits 51.9% · EV -0.83
Model lean: NE -3.0. The simulations put it at 51.6%; calibrated against five seasons of results that is 50.5% (-3.61 per $100 at -110). Total lean: Over 46.5, 56.5% model-implied, 51.9% calibrated (-0.83 per $100). The simulations project New England Patriots 26.1, Green Bay Packers 23.1, a fair line of NE -3.0 against the market's -3.0. The gap is driven mainly by NE pass offense vs GB pass defense (+3.4 pts) and GB pass offense vs NE pass defense (-2.3 pts). Confidence is high: inputs rest on 975 offensive snaps this season across both teams, blended with a shrunk 2025 prior and opponent adjusted. Situational context: away rest edge (10 vs 7 days), historically -1.0 vs spread (home) (n=355). Prop lean: Jordan Love passing yards under 266.0 (projection 260.8, 53%). Signal Score 47 (grade C) measures how strongly and consistently the simulations disagree with the market, weighted by sample size and penalized for gaps larger than the data supports. It is a measure of disagreement, not a proven edge: in a 2021-2025 walk-forward backtest this model's side covered 48.8% against closing lines when the gap was 3 points or more, which is why displayed probabilities are shrunk toward 50%.
How the Signal Score works
Signal Score measures how far our simulation sits from the market. It is a disagreement meter, not a confidence rating. Across 61 graded games A/B grades have not outperformed C/D.
Win probability · 10,000 sims
Score margin distribution
10,000 simulated games
Outlined bars: 3 and 7 are the most common NFL margins.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book | Value side | EV at calibrated prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | -3.0 | -3.0 | NE -3.0 spr 50.5%model-implied 51.6% | No edge |
| Total | 49.1 | 46.5 | Over 46.5 tot 51.9%model-implied 56.5% | No edge |
Key factors
| Factor | Effect | n |
|---|---|---|
| NE pass offense vs GB pass defense | +3.40 | 564 |
| GB pass offense vs NE pass defense | -2.30 | 607 |
| Home field | +1.40 | 3149 |
| GB rush offense vs NE rush defense | +1.10 | 353 |
| Turnover margin expectation | -1.10 | 975 |
| NE rush offense vs GB rush defense | -0.20 | 451 |
| Red zone finishing gap | -0.20 | 52 |
| Strength of schedule adjustment (home minus away) | +0.20 | 975 |
Situational splits
| Away rest edge (10 vs 7 days) | -1.0 vs spread (home) | 355 |
Player props
- Reference line is Drake Maye's blended season average; confirm against your book before pricing
- Positively correlated with team total over and game total over
- Opponent pass defense stronger than league average (-0.007 EPA/dropback)
- Game pace factor 0.99x league average
- Reference line is Jordan Love's blended season average; confirm against your book before pricing
- Positively correlated with team total over and game total over
- Opponent pass defense stronger than league average (-0.021 EPA/dropback)
- Game pace factor 0.99x league average
Plain-language summary
10,000 simulations project New England Patriots 26.1, Green Bay Packers 23.1 (home win probability 58%). Model spread NE -3.0 against a market of -3.0, a 0.0-point lean toward GB; NE covers in 51.6% of sims. Model total 49.1 versus 46.5, over hits 56.5%. Largest driver: NE pass offense vs GB pass defense (+3.4 pts). Efficiency inputs blend all 2026 games played to date with a shrunk 2025 prior and are opponent adjusted.