NFL projections
NFL Projections
Every NFL game simulated 10,000 times and compared to the betting market. We show where the line is likely to move, where a book is holding a better number, and what the model projects, with a public record of how it all did.
See this week's slate →Projected line moves
We compare our simulated spread to the opening line. When our number sits 3 or more points off the opener, we say which way the market is likely to move. From 2021 to 2025 the line moved our way 65.6 percent of the time in those spots (n=183), and the effect held in every season tested. It tells you which side to be early on, not who wins.
Best-number alerts
The same bet is priced differently at different books. An alert means one regulated US book is holding a number or price worth $3 or more per $100 against the consensus. It is a better deal on the same wager, not a prediction of the result.
Model projections
- Projected score, model spread and total next to the market line
- Calibrated cover and over/under probabilities, plus the raw model-implied figure
- A Signal Score: a disagreement meter showing how far the simulation sits from the market, not a confidence rating
- A chart of all 10,000 simulated final margins
Honest track record
In a 2021 to 2025 walk-forward backtest of 1,279 games, the model's side covered 48.8 percent against closing lines at gaps of 3 or more points. That is why model projections are context, not recommendations, and why displayed probabilities are shrunk toward the market. Every number we publish is graded after the game. See the results or read the full methodology.
Pricing
One full game is free each week. Quick Look ($7) unlocks every alert and projected move for the current NFL week; All Access ($29/month) covers every slate. See plans.