NFL week-7
SF @ ATL
Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Outdoors; forecast not yet loaded
Kicked off. The close and the graded move are on the Results page.
Alert history
| Number | Appeared | Ended | Edge at issue |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL +3 -118BetRivers | Oct 23, 2026, 6:13 AM ET | Oct 25, 2026, 6:13 AM ET | +$5.03 |
Reference
Simulation detail
What the 10,000 simulations produced. Context for the market numbers above, not a recommendation.
Simulation side
HIGH CONFIDENCESF -2.5
Covers 50.9% · EV -2.89
Over 49.5
Hits 50.4% · EV -3.77
Model lean: SF -2.5. The simulations put it at 52.9%; calibrated against five seasons of results that is 50.9% (-2.89 per $100 at -110). Total lean: Over 49.5, 51.4% model-implied, 50.4% calibrated (-3.77 per $100). The simulations project Atlanta Falcons 23.8, San Francisco 49ers 26.3, a fair line of ATL +2.4 against the market's +2.5. The gap is driven mainly by SF pass offense vs ATL pass defense (-2.5 pts) and SF injuries: WR Mike Evans (Out); DE Nick Bosa (Out); WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (Out); CB Upton Stout (Questionable) ... (+1.9 pts). Confidence is high: inputs rest on 696 offensive snaps this season across both teams, blended with a shrunk 2025 prior and opponent adjusted. Injury adjustment: ATL minus 1.3 points for 8 listed starter(s) (DE Samson Ebukam (Questionable), CB C.J. Henderson (Questionable), CB A.J. Terrell (Questionable)). Injury adjustment: SF minus 1.9 points for 5 listed starter(s) (WR Mike Evans (Out), DE Nick Bosa (Out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (Out)). Situational context: spread within a field goal (3 or less), historically +0.1 vs spread (home) (n=1176). Prop lean: Brock Purdy passing yards under 242.5 (projection 234.8, 55%). Signal Score 36 (grade D) measures how strongly and consistently the simulations disagree with the market, weighted by sample size and penalized for gaps larger than the data supports. It is a measure of disagreement, not a proven edge: in a 2021-2025 walk-forward backtest this model's side covered 48.8% against closing lines when the gap was 3 points or more, which is why displayed probabilities are shrunk toward 50%.
How the Signal Score works
Signal Score measures how far our simulation sits from the market. It is a disagreement meter, not a confidence rating. Across 61 graded games A/B grades have not outperformed C/D.
Win probability · 10,000 sims
Score margin distribution
10,000 simulated games
Outlined bars: 3 and 7 are the most common NFL margins.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book | Value side | EV at calibrated prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.4 | +2.5 | SF -2.5 spr 50.9%model-implied 52.9% | No edge |
| Total | 50.1 | 49.5 | Over 49.5 tot 50.4%model-implied 51.4% | No edge |
Key factors
| Factor | Effect | n |
|---|---|---|
| SF pass offense vs ATL pass defense | -2.50 | 438 |
| SF injuries: WR Mike Evans (Out); DE Nick Bosa (Out); WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (Out); CB Upton Stout (Questionable) ... | +1.90 | 5 |
| Red zone finishing gap | -1.40 | 37 |
| Home field | +1.40 | 3122 |
| ATL injuries: DE Samson Ebukam (Questionable); CB C.J. Henderson (Questionable); CB A.J. Terrell (Questionable); LB Divine Deablo (Out) ... | -1.30 | 8 |
| SF rush offense vs ATL rush defense | -0.60 | 295 |
| ATL pass offense vs SF pass defense | -0.40 | 412 |
| Turnover margin expectation | -0.30 | 696 |
| Strength of schedule adjustment (home minus away) | +0.20 | 696 |
| ATL rush offense vs SF rush defense | -0.10 | 322 |
Situational splits
| Spread within a field goal (3 or less) | +0.1 vs spread (home) | 1176 |
Player props
- Reference line is Michael Penix Jr.'s blended season average; confirm against your book before pricing
- Positively correlated with team total over and game total over
- Opponent pass defense weaker than league average (+0.036 EPA/dropback)
- Game pace factor 0.97x league average
- Reference line is Brock Purdy's blended season average; confirm against your book before pricing
- Positively correlated with team total over and game total over
- Opponent pass defense stronger than league average (-0.024 EPA/dropback)
- Game pace factor 0.97x league average
Plain-language summary
10,000 simulations project Atlanta Falcons 23.8, San Francisco 49ers 26.3 (home win probability 43%). Model spread ATL +2.4 against a market of +2.5, a 0.1-point lean toward ATL; ATL covers in 47.1% of sims. Model total 50.1 versus 49.5, over hits 51.4%. Largest driver: SF pass offense vs ATL pass defense (-2.5 pts). Efficiency inputs blend all 2026 games played to date with a shrunk 2025 prior and are opponent adjusted.
Graded result