NFL week-8
BAL @ BUF
Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET · Highmark Stadium · Outdoors; forecast not yet loaded
Kicked off. The close and the graded move are on the Results page.
Projected line move
Line should move toward BUF
opened BUF -2.5, model -4.4
Historically 61.6% of the time when the line moved a point or more (n=367, 2021-2025)
Projected line move: toward BUF. The simulations price BUF at -4.4 against an opener of -2.5 (1.9 points apart). In 2021-2025, when the model sat 1+ points off the opener and the line later moved a point or more, it moved toward the model 62% of the time (n=367); average closing-line value captured was +0.22 points. This is market anticipation, not a pick: graded at the opener the model's side covered about 50%.
Alert history
| Number | Appeared | Ended | Edge at issue |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL +3.5 -117BetRivers | Nov 1, 2026, 9:15 AM ET | Nov 1, 2026, 11:13 AM ET | +$5.52 |
| BUF -3 -115Caesars | Nov 1, 2026, 8:16 AM ET | Nov 1, 2026, 9:15 AM ET | +$4.97 |
Reference
Simulation detail
What the 10,000 simulations produced. Context for the market numbers above, not a recommendation.
Simulation side
HIGH CONFIDENCEBUF -3.0
Covers 50.3% · EV -4.04
Over 54.5
Hits 50.7% · EV -3.18
Model lean: BUF -3.0. The simulations put it at 50.9%; calibrated against five seasons of results that is 50.3% (-4.04 per $100 at -110). Total lean: Over 54.5, 52.4% model-implied, 50.7% calibrated (-3.18 per $100). The simulations project Buffalo Bills 29.3, Baltimore Ravens 26.5, a fair line of BUF -2.9 against the market's -3.0. The gap is driven mainly by BUF pass offense vs BAL pass defense (+3.4 pts) and BAL rush offense vs BUF rush defense (-1.8 pts). Confidence is high: inputs rest on 780 offensive snaps this season across both teams, blended with a shrunk 2025 prior and opponent adjusted. Injury adjustment: BUF minus 0.6 points for 4 listed starter(s) (WR DJ Moore (Questionable), T Spencer Brown (Questionable), CB Dee Alford (Questionable)). Quarterback change: BAL lists Lamar Jackson as the starter in place of Tyler Huntley (+0.01 vs +0.08 EPA per dropback over their recent samples), adding BAL 1.8 points. Situational context: home rest edge (14 vs 7 days), historically +0.0 vs spread (home) (n=337). Prop lean: Lamar Jackson passing yards under 223.0 (projection 219.3, 53%). Signal Score 33 (grade D) measures how strongly and consistently the simulations disagree with the market, weighted by sample size and penalized for gaps larger than the data supports. It is a measure of disagreement, not a proven edge: in a 2021-2025 walk-forward backtest this model's side covered 48.8% against closing lines when the gap was 3 points or more, which is why displayed probabilities are shrunk toward 50%.
How the Signal Score works
Signal Score measures how far our simulation sits from the market. It is a disagreement meter, not a confidence rating. Across 61 graded games A/B grades have not outperformed C/D.
Win probability · 10,000 sims
Score margin distribution
10,000 simulated games
Outlined bars: 3 and 7 are the most common NFL margins.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book | Value side | EV at calibrated prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2.9 | -3.0 | BUF -3.0 spr 50.3%model-implied 50.9% | No edge |
| Total | 55.8 | 54.5 | Over 54.5 tot 50.7%model-implied 52.4% | No edge |
Key factors
| Factor | Effect | n |
|---|---|---|
| BUF pass offense vs BAL pass defense | +3.40 | 431 |
| BAL rush offense vs BUF rush defense | -1.80 | 363 |
| Home field | +1.40 | 3136 |
| Strength of schedule adjustment (home minus away) | +1.40 | 780 |
| Red zone finishing gap | +1.30 | 51 |
| BUF rush offense vs BAL rush defense | +1.20 | 346 |
| BUF injuries: WR DJ Moore (Questionable); T Spencer Brown (Questionable); CB Dee Alford (Questionable); TE Dalton Kincaid (Questionable) | -0.60 | 4 |
| Turnover margin expectation | -0.20 | 780 |
| BAL pass offense vs BUF pass defense | -0.10 | 474 |
Situational splits
| Home rest edge (14 vs 7 days) | +0.0 vs spread (home) | 337 |
Player props
- Reference line is Josh Allen's blended season average; confirm against your book before pricing
- Positively correlated with team total over and game total over
- Opponent pass defense weaker than league average (+0.038 EPA/dropback)
- Game pace factor 0.98x league average
- Reference line is Lamar Jackson's blended season average; confirm against your book before pricing
- Positively correlated with team total over and game total over
- Opponent pass defense stronger than league average (-0.008 EPA/dropback)
- Game pace factor 0.98x league average
Plain-language summary
10,000 simulations project Buffalo Bills 29.3, Baltimore Ravens 26.5 (home win probability 58%). Model spread BUF -2.9 against a market of -3.0, a 0.1-point lean toward BAL; BUF covers in 50.9% of sims. Model total 55.8 versus 54.5, over hits 52.4%. Largest driver: BUF pass offense vs BAL pass defense (+3.4 pts). Efficiency inputs blend all 2026 games played to date with a shrunk 2025 prior and are opponent adjusted.
Graded result