NFL week-3
LAC @ BUF
Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · Highmark Stadium · Outdoors; forecast not yet loaded
Kicked off. The close and the graded move are on the Results page.
Alert history
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Reference
Simulation detail
What the 10,000 simulations produced. Context for the market numbers above, not a recommendation.
Simulation side
MEDIUM CONFIDENCEBUF -7.0
Covers 50.3% · EV -3.91
Under 50.5
Hits 52.4% · EV +0.06
Model lean: BUF -7.0. The simulations put it at 51.1%; calibrated against five seasons of results that is 50.3% (-3.91 per $100 at -110). Total lean: Under 50.5, 58.0% model-implied, 52.4% calibrated (+0.06 per $100). The simulations project Buffalo Bills 27.6, Los Angeles Chargers 20.1, a fair line of BUF -7.5 against the market's -7.0. The gap is driven mainly by LAC pass offense vs BUF pass defense (+2.4 pts) and BUF pass offense vs LAC pass defense (+1.7 pts). Confidence is medium: inputs rest on 231 offensive snaps this season across both teams, blended with a shrunk 2025 prior and opponent adjusted. Injury adjustment: BUF minus 0.5 points for 3 listed starter(s) (WR DJ Moore (Questionable), DT Ed Oliver (Questionable), WR Keon Coleman (Questionable)). Injury adjustment: LAC minus 1.1 points for 4 listed starter(s) (DT Dalvin Tomlinson (Out), G Kayode Awosika (Out), S Elijah Molden (Out)). Situational context: home rest edge (10 vs 7 days), historically -0.1 vs spread (home) (n=329). Prop lean: Josh Allen passing yards under 250.0 (projection 242.8, 54%). Signal Score 39 (grade D) measures how strongly and consistently the simulations disagree with the market, weighted by sample size and penalized for gaps larger than the data supports. It is a measure of disagreement, not a proven edge: in a 2021-2025 walk-forward backtest this model's side covered 48.8% against closing lines when the gap was 3 points or more, which is why displayed probabilities are shrunk toward 50%.
How the Signal Score works
Signal Score measures how far our simulation sits from the market. It is a disagreement meter, not a confidence rating. Across 61 graded games A/B grades have not outperformed C/D.
Win probability · 10,000 sims
Score margin distribution
10,000 simulated games
Outlined bars: 3 and 7 are the most common NFL margins.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book | Value side | EV at calibrated prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | -7.5 | -7.0 | BUF -7.0 spr 50.3%model-implied 51.1% | No edge |
| Total | 47.7 | 50.5 | Under 50.5 tot 52.4%model-implied 58.0% | No edge |
Key factors
| Factor | Effect | n |
|---|---|---|
| LAC pass offense vs BUF pass defense | +2.40 | 143 |
| BUF pass offense vs LAC pass defense | +1.70 | 134 |
| Home field | +1.40 | 3061 |
| Red zone finishing gap | +1.20 | 14 |
| Turnover margin expectation | +1.10 | 231 |
| LAC injuries: DT Dalvin Tomlinson (Out); G Kayode Awosika (Out); S Elijah Molden (Out); TE Charlie Kolar (Out) | +1.10 | 4 |
| Strength of schedule adjustment (home minus away) | +1.00 | 231 |
| LAC rush offense vs BUF rush defense | -0.80 | 105 |
| BUF rush offense vs LAC rush defense | +0.70 | 110 |
| BUF injuries: WR DJ Moore (Questionable); DT Ed Oliver (Questionable); WR Keon Coleman (Questionable) | -0.50 | 3 |
Situational splits
| Home rest edge (10 vs 7 days) | -0.1 vs spread (home) | 329 |
| Spread of 7+ (favorite side) | +0.4 vs spread (home) | 869 |
Player props
- Reference line is Josh Allen's blended season average; confirm against your book before pricing
- Positively correlated with team total over and game total over
- Opponent pass defense stronger than league average (-0.049 EPA/dropback)
- Game pace factor 1.00x league average
- Reference line is Justin Herbert's blended season average; confirm against your book before pricing
- Positively correlated with team total over and game total over
- Opponent pass defense stronger than league average (-0.054 EPA/dropback)
- Game pace factor 1.00x league average
Plain-language summary
10,000 simulations project Buffalo Bills 27.6, Los Angeles Chargers 20.1 (home win probability 70%). Model spread BUF -7.5 against a market of -7.0, a 0.5-point lean toward BUF; BUF covers in 51.1% of sims. Model total 47.7 versus 50.5, under hits 58.0%. Largest driver: LAC pass offense vs BUF pass defense (+2.4 pts). Efficiency inputs blend all 2026 games played to date with a shrunk 2025 prior and are opponent adjusted.
Graded result