NFL week-4
LA @ PHI
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field · Outdoors; forecast not yet loaded
Kicked off. The close and the graded move are on the Results page.
Alert history
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Reference
Simulation detail
What the 10,000 simulations produced. Context for the market numbers above, not a recommendation.
Simulation side
HIGH CONFIDENCELA -3.5
Covers 50.1% · EV -4.42
Over 42.5
Hits 52.0% · EV -0.79
Model lean: LA -3.5. The simulations put it at 50.2%; calibrated against five seasons of results that is 50.1% (-4.42 per $100 at -110). Total lean: Over 42.5, 56.6% model-implied, 52.0% calibrated (-0.79 per $100). The simulations project Philadelphia Eagles 20.7, Los Angeles Rams 24.3, a fair line of PHI +3.6 against the market's +3.5. The gap is driven mainly by PHI pass offense vs LA pass defense (-1.9 pts) and PHI injuries: TE Dallas Goedert (Out); S Marcus Epps (Out); LB Zack Baun (Out); WR DeVonta Smith (Out) (-1.7 pts). Confidence is high: inputs rest on 362 offensive snaps this season across both teams, blended with a shrunk 2025 prior and opponent adjusted. Injury adjustment: PHI minus 1.7 points for 4 listed starter(s) (TE Dallas Goedert (Out), S Marcus Epps (Out), LB Zack Baun (Out)). Injury adjustment: LA minus 1.1 points for 5 listed starter(s) (DT Aaron Donald (Out), TE Colby Parkinson (Questionable), CB Jaylen Watson (Out)). Situational context: spread within a field goal (3 or less), historically +0.1 vs spread (home) (n=1156). Prop lean: Jalen Hurts passing yards under 203.5 (projection 192.9, 57%). Signal Score 40 (grade D) measures how strongly and consistently the simulations disagree with the market, weighted by sample size and penalized for gaps larger than the data supports. It is a measure of disagreement, not a proven edge: in a 2021-2025 walk-forward backtest this model's side covered 48.8% against closing lines when the gap was 3 points or more, which is why displayed probabilities are shrunk toward 50%.
How the Signal Score works
Signal Score measures how far our simulation sits from the market. It is a disagreement meter, not a confidence rating. Across 61 graded games A/B grades have not outperformed C/D.
Win probability · 10,000 sims
Score margin distribution
10,000 simulated games
Outlined bars: 3 and 7 are the most common NFL margins.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book | Value side | EV at calibrated prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3.6 | +3.5 | LA -3.5 spr 50.1%model-implied 50.2% | No edge |
| Total | 45.0 | 42.5 | Over 42.5 tot 52.0%model-implied 56.6% | No edge |
Key factors
| Factor | Effect | n |
|---|---|---|
| PHI pass offense vs LA pass defense | -1.90 | 201 |
| PHI injuries: TE Dallas Goedert (Out); S Marcus Epps (Out); LB Zack Baun (Out); WR DeVonta Smith (Out) | -1.70 | 4 |
| Home field | +1.40 | 3077 |
| LA injuries: DT Aaron Donald (Out); TE Colby Parkinson (Questionable); CB Jaylen Watson (Out); LB Josaiah Stewart (Questionable) ... | +1.10 | 5 |
| LA pass offense vs PHI pass defense | -1.00 | 208 |
| Strength of schedule adjustment (home minus away) | -1.00 | 362 |
| Turnover margin expectation | -0.60 | 362 |
| Red zone finishing gap | +0.60 | 20 |
| LA rush offense vs PHI rush defense | -0.30 | 170 |
| PHI rush offense vs LA rush defense | +0.10 | 150 |
Situational splits
| Spread within a field goal (3 or less) | +0.1 vs spread (home) | 1156 |
Player props
- Reference line is Jalen Hurts's blended season average; confirm against your book before pricing
- Positively correlated with team total over and game total over
- Opponent pass defense stronger than league average (-0.084 EPA/dropback)
- Game pace factor 0.99x league average
- Reference line is Matthew Stafford's blended season average; confirm against your book before pricing
- Positively correlated with team total over and game total over
- Opponent pass defense stronger than league average (-0.076 EPA/dropback)
- Game pace factor 0.99x league average
Plain-language summary
10,000 simulations project Philadelphia Eagles 20.7, Los Angeles Rams 24.3 (home win probability 40%). Model spread PHI +3.6 against a market of +3.5, a 0.1-point lean toward LA; PHI covers in 49.8% of sims. Model total 45.0 versus 42.5, over hits 56.6%. Largest driver: PHI pass offense vs LA pass defense (-1.9 pts). Efficiency inputs blend all 2026 games played to date with a shrunk 2025 prior and are opponent adjusted.
Graded result