NFL week-5
NYG @ WAS
Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · Northwest Stadium · Outdoors; forecast not yet loaded
Kicked off. The close and the graded move are on the Results page.
Alert history
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Reference
Simulation detail
What the 10,000 simulations produced. Context for the market numbers above, not a recommendation.
Simulation side
MEDIUM CONFIDENCENYG +3.5
Covers 50.1% · EV -4.43
Over 41.5
Hits 56.0% · EV +6.91
Model lean: NYG +3.5. The simulations put it at 50.2%; calibrated against five seasons of results that is 50.1% (-4.43 per $100 at -110). Total lean: Over 41.5, 74.7% model-implied, 56.0% calibrated (+6.91 per $100). The simulations project Washington Commanders 27.5, New York Giants 24.4, a fair line of WAS -3.1 against the market's -3.5. The gap is driven mainly by WAS rush offense vs NYG rush defense (+1.8 pts) and NYG pass offense vs WAS pass defense (-1.8 pts). Confidence is medium: inputs rest on 499 offensive snaps this season across both teams, blended with a shrunk 2025 prior and opponent adjusted. Quarterback change: WAS lists Jayden Daniels as the starter in place of A.Kaliakmanis (-0.12 vs -0.01 EPA per dropback over their recent samples), adding WAS 3.0 points. Injury adjustment: NYG minus 0.6 points for 2 listed starter(s) (S Jason Pinnock (Out), DE Chauncey Golston (Out)). Caution: the model and market disagree by 10.4 points, more than three weeks of efficiency data normally supports. Check for injury, weather or quarterback news before acting; the Edge Score is penalized for this. Situational context: divisional game, historically -0.2 vs spread (home) (n=1091). Prop lean: Jameis Winston passing yards over 230.5 (projection 246.1, 57%). Signal Score 80 (grade A) measures how strongly and consistently the simulations disagree with the market, weighted by sample size and penalized for gaps larger than the data supports. It is a measure of disagreement, not a proven edge: in a 2021-2025 walk-forward backtest this model's side covered 48.8% against closing lines when the gap was 3 points or more, which is why displayed probabilities are shrunk toward 50%.
How the Signal Score works
Signal Score measures how far our simulation sits from the market. It is a disagreement meter, not a confidence rating. Across 61 graded games A/B grades have not outperformed C/D.
Win probability · 10,000 sims
Score margin distribution
10,000 simulated games
Outlined bars: 3 and 7 are the most common NFL margins.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book | Value side | EV at calibrated prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | -3.1 | -3.5 | NYG +3.5 spr 50.1%model-implied 50.2% | No edge |
| Total | 51.9 | 41.5 | Over 41.5 tot 56.0%model-implied 74.7% | +6.91 |
Key factors
| Factor | Effect | n |
|---|---|---|
| WAS rush offense vs NYG rush defense | +1.80 | 206 |
| NYG pass offense vs WAS pass defense | -1.80 | 267 |
| Home field | +1.40 | 3093 |
| Strength of schedule adjustment (home minus away) | +1.40 | 499 |
| Red zone finishing gap | +1.20 | 23 |
| NYG rush offense vs WAS rush defense | -1.00 | 206 |
| Turnover margin expectation | -0.60 | 499 |
| NYG injuries: S Jason Pinnock (Out); DE Chauncey Golston (Out) | +0.60 | 2 |
| WAS pass offense vs NYG pass defense | -0.50 | 281 |
Situational splits
| Divisional game | -0.2 vs spread (home) | 1091 |
Player props
- Reference line is Jayden Daniels's blended season average; confirm against your book before pricing
- Positively correlated with team total over and game total over
- Opponent pass defense weaker than league average (+0.001 EPA/dropback)
- Game pace factor 1.01x league average
- Reference line is Jameis Winston's blended season average; confirm against your book before pricing
- Positively correlated with team total over and game total over
- Opponent pass defense weaker than league average (+0.103 EPA/dropback)
- Game pace factor 1.01x league average
Plain-language summary
10,000 simulations project Washington Commanders 27.5, New York Giants 24.4 (home win probability 59%). Model spread WAS -3.1 against a market of -3.5, a 0.4-point lean toward NYG; WAS covers in 49.8% of sims. Model total 51.9 versus 41.5, over hits 74.7%. Largest driver: WAS rush offense vs NYG rush defense (+1.8 pts). Efficiency inputs blend all 2026 games played to date with a shrunk 2025 prior and are opponent adjusted.
Graded result