NFL week-6
TEN @ IND
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium · Outdoors; forecast not yet loaded
Kicked off. The close and the graded move are on the Results page.
Alert history
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Reference
Simulation detail
What the 10,000 simulations produced. Context for the market numbers above, not a recommendation.
Simulation side
HIGH CONFIDENCEIND -7.0
Covers 51.1% · EV -2.40
Over 44.5
Hits 50.4% · EV -3.70
Model lean: IND -7.0. The simulations put it at 53.7%; calibrated against five seasons of results that is 51.1% (-2.40 per $100 at -110). Total lean: Over 44.5, 51.5% model-implied, 50.4% calibrated (-3.70 per $100). The simulations project Indianapolis Colts 27.1, Tennessee Titans 18.9, a fair line of IND -8.2 against the market's -7.0. The gap is driven mainly by TEN pass offense vs IND pass defense (+3.4 pts) and IND pass offense vs TEN pass defense (+1.9 pts). Confidence is high: inputs rest on 594 offensive snaps this season across both teams, blended with a shrunk 2025 prior and opponent adjusted. Injury adjustment: IND minus 0.3 points for 2 listed starter(s) (LB Jaylon Carlies (Out), TE Tyler Warren (Questionable)). Injury adjustment: TEN minus 0.3 points for 1 listed starter(s) (S Kevin Winston Jr. (Out)). Situational context: divisional game, historically -0.2 vs spread (home) (n=1096). Prop lean: Daniel Jones passing yards over 226.0 (projection 239.1, 60%). Signal Score 38 (grade D) measures how strongly and consistently the simulations disagree with the market, weighted by sample size and penalized for gaps larger than the data supports. It is a measure of disagreement, not a proven edge: in a 2021-2025 walk-forward backtest this model's side covered 48.8% against closing lines when the gap was 3 points or more, which is why displayed probabilities are shrunk toward 50%.
How the Signal Score works
Signal Score measures how far our simulation sits from the market. It is a disagreement meter, not a confidence rating. Across 61 graded games A/B grades have not outperformed C/D.
Win probability · 10,000 sims
Score margin distribution
10,000 simulated games
Outlined bars: 3 and 7 are the most common NFL margins.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Book | Value side | EV at calibrated prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | -8.2 | -7.0 | IND -7.0 spr 51.1%model-implied 53.7% | No edge |
| Total | 45.9 | 44.5 | Over 44.5 tot 50.4%model-implied 51.5% | No edge |
Key factors
| Factor | Effect | n |
|---|---|---|
| TEN pass offense vs IND pass defense | +3.40 | 342 |
| IND pass offense vs TEN pass defense | +1.90 | 341 |
| IND rush offense vs TEN rush defense | +1.40 | 288 |
| Red zone finishing gap | +1.40 | 28 |
| Home field | +1.40 | 3108 |
| TEN rush offense vs IND rush defense | +0.40 | 234 |
| IND injuries: LB Jaylon Carlies (Out); TE Tyler Warren (Questionable) | -0.30 | 2 |
| TEN injuries: S Kevin Winston Jr. (Out) | +0.30 | 1 |
| Strength of schedule adjustment (home minus away) | +0.20 | 594 |
| Turnover margin expectation | -0.10 | 594 |
Situational splits
| Divisional game | -0.2 vs spread (home) | 1096 |
| Spread of 7+ (favorite side) | +0.4 vs spread (home) | 881 |
Player props
- Reference line is Daniel Jones's blended season average; confirm against your book before pricing
- Positively correlated with team total over and game total over
- Opponent pass defense weaker than league average (+0.121 EPA/dropback)
- Game pace factor 0.97x league average
- Reference line is Cam Ward's blended season average; confirm against your book before pricing
- Positively correlated with team total over and game total over
- Opponent pass defense weaker than league average (+0.022 EPA/dropback)
- Game pace factor 0.97x league average
Plain-language summary
10,000 simulations project Indianapolis Colts 27.1, Tennessee Titans 18.9 (home win probability 72%). Model spread IND -8.2 against a market of -7.0, a 1.2-point lean toward IND; IND covers in 53.7% of sims. Model total 45.9 versus 44.5, over hits 51.5%. Largest driver: TEN pass offense vs IND pass defense (+3.4 pts). Efficiency inputs blend all 2026 games played to date with a shrunk 2025 prior and are opponent adjusted.
Graded result